These are all from Politicalwire.com:
#1. Worst Pick Ever?
This guest post is offered by pollster Del Ali, the president of Research 2000.
Sarah Palin will wow cultural conservatives in areas where they may not have come out to vote before the selection. This is right out of Karl Rove’s strategy of getting more of your own to show up and vote.
However, in many of the swing states that Bush carried in 2004, there were anti gay ballot measures to motivate the cultural conservatives to vote. There are very few of these measures on the ballots in those key states in 2008. Palin may not be enough for them to get out and vote. Clearly Rove felt in 2004 that Bush would not have been enough, thus the ballot measures.
In fact, as Palin’s cultural views become better known — she oppose abortion in all cases and opposes the use of birth control pills and condoms even among married couples — she will undoubtedly scare the hell out of the soccer moms and 98% of Hillary voters. In fact, many of these women may feel insulted by this choice in that McCain and the GOP think they are stupid and would bypass their own interest (reproductive and economic) to vote for the ticket due to gender and anger that Hillary was not the nominee.
In my estimation as a pollster and analyst, while historic for the GOP in selecting their first woman on a national ticket, this choice may be the worst selection by a major party nominee for President in modern times.
#2. Quote of the Day
“It’s a wild gamble, undertaken by our oldest ever first-time candidate for president in hopes of changing the board of this election campaign. Maybe it will work. But maybe (and at least as likely) it will reinforce a theme that I’d be pounding home if I were the Obama campaign: that it’s John McCain for all his white hair who represents the risky choice, while it is Barack Obama who offers cautious, steady, predictable governance.”
— Former Bush speechwriter David Frum
#3. Smart Tactical Pick?
This guest post is offered by pollster David Johnson, the president of Strategic Vision.
Sarah Palin may be one of the smartest tactical moves made by the McCain Campaign and the Democrats should be very careful in their line of attack against her. Depending on how she is defined at the Republican Convention she could be a game changer.
Barack Obama is underperforming among female voters in the key states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Wisconsin in our polling. In these states he is only leading John McCain by 2% to 3% among females where traditionally there has been a double digit lead for Democrats. If Palin can help keep these voters in play and then energize base Republican voters, these states have the potential to flip.
The Obama line of attack against Palin may further alienate voters in these states. By attacking her as being a Mayor of a small town of 9,000, the Democrats open themselves up to charges of elitism and revive the “bitter” comments that Obama made in his race against Hillary Clinton. Remember there are numerous small towns of 9,000 or even less in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Wisconsin.
Finally, by attacking Palin as being inexperienced the Obama Campaign may actually help bolster McCain’s own arguments of inexperience against Obama. If Palin is inexperienced to be Vice President based upon her record in Alaska, how can Democrats argue that Obama is experienced to be President based upon his record.
Polling will not reflect whether this selection was the worst pick ever as some allege or a masterstroke until Americans see her this week at Minneapolis. But at this point, the Democratic line of attack against her could backfire.