Forecasting the Electoral College


Forecasting the Electoral Vote
Research by Tom Holbrook and Jay DeSart shows that presidential candidates “generally win states in which they hold a lead in September polls and always win when they lead outside the margin of error.”

Based on this work, they project Sen. Barack Obama will beat Sen. John McCain in the Electoral College, 336 to 202. Projecting the national popular vote based on predicted state margins and assumed state-level contributions to the national vote, they expect Obama will get 51.8% of the two-party vote.


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