Simulation Predicts 99.98% Chance of An Obama Win


Simulation Shows Obama Will Win
Brian Adams, a mathematics and computer science professor at Franklin & Marshall College, reports that there’s a 99.98% chance that Sen. Barack Obama will win the presidential election on Tuesday.

Adams has developed a simulation model that involves running 50 million simulated state-by-state races, using the late-October poll results for each state. He ran his simulation 50 million times to allow him to calculate all the different combinations of electoral votes that might result, even long shots. While the number of possible outcomes is very large, the result is always the same. Obama receives 270 or more electoral votes 99.98% of the time. Using intervals of electoral vote results, there is a 95 percent chance that the outcome will have Obama winning between 303 and 381 electoral votes.


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